A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses     

Michael J. Glotter  Raymond T. Pierrehumbert  Joshua W. Elliott  Nathan J. Matteson  Elisabeth J. Moyer 《Climatic change》2014,126(3-4):319-335

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that couple the climate system and the economy require a representation of ocean CO₂ uptake to translate human-produced emissions to atmospheric concentrations and in turn to climate change. The simple linear carbon cycle representations in most IAMs are not however physical at long timescales, since ocean carbonate chemistry makes CO₂ uptake highly nonlinear. No linearized representation can capture the ocean’s dual-mode behavior, with initial rapid uptake and then slow equilibration over ∽10,000 years. In a business-as-usual scenario followed by cessation of emissions, the carbon cycle in the 2007 version of the most widely used IAM, DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), produces errors of ∽2^°C by the year 2300 and ∽6^°C by the year 3500. We suggest here a simple alternative representation that captures the relevant physics and show that it reproduces carbon uptake in several more complex models to within the inter-model spread. The scheme involves little additional complexity over the DICE model, making it a useful tool for economic and policy analyses.  相似文献   

From Vegetable Box to Seafood Cooler: Applying the Community-Supported Agriculture Model to Fisheries     

Lisa M. Campbell  Noëlle Boucquey  Joshua Stoll  Henry Coppola  Martin D. Smith 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(1):88-106

Community-supported fisheries (CSF) projects show signs of rapid growth. Modeled on community-supported agriculture (CSA) projects, CSFs share objectives of reducing social and physical distance between consumers and producers and re-embedding food systems in social and environmental contexts. This article offers a comparison of CSF and CSA, situated in the differences between seafood and agricultural products, and fishing and farming. We draw on economic and resource theory, past research on CSA, and a member survey from a case study CSF. Survey results show CSF members are interested in accessing high-quality, fresh, local seafood, and in supporting fishing communities, and they believe that participating in a CSF achieves both. They are less certain that a CSF can address environmental concerns, and few identify environmental motives as their primary reason for participating. The latter contrasts with CSA research results, and we contextualize these findings in our broader comparison.  相似文献   

Chaoborus americanus predation influences Bosmina mucro lengths in fishless lakes     

Andrew L. Labaj  Joshua Kurek  John P. Smol 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,51(3):449-454

Size attributes of the cladoceran taxon Bosmina are known to vary in response to the intensity and dominant type of predation. Using a paleolimnological approach, we tested the hypothesis that Bosmina size structure differs between fishless lakes and those with presumed populations of planktivorous fish. We measured sedimentary remains of Bosmina longirostris and assessed assemblage structure of the gape-limited invertebrate predator Chaoborus within the surface sediments of 29 lakes in remote, northwestern Ontario, Canada. Mean B. longirostris mucro, antennule, and carapace lengths did not differ significantly between lake predation categories. However, within fishless lakes, a significant (r = 0.68, P = 0.01) positive correlation was apparent between B. longirostris mucro length and Chaoborus americanus percent abundance. We thus suggest that B. longirostris mucro length may be sensitive to C. americanus predation, however further information on the interactions with predators is needed.  相似文献   

Mainstreaming local perceptions of hurricane risk into policymaking: A case study of community GIS in Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. Krishna Krishnamurthy  Joshua B. Fisher  Craig Johnson 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):143-153

This article suggests a framework for incorporating and communicating local perceptions of hurricane risk into policymaking through a case study conducted at El Zapotito commune in the State of Veracruz, Mexico. The authors constructed a geographical information system (GIS)-based model to quantify and spatially assess specific household-level vulnerabilities from information generated through interviews. This research developed a household vulnerability index applied to a participatory GIS to map vulnerability to hurricane hazard. The results indicate that infrastructural weaknesses are the most important factor contributing to vulnerability, explaining on their own 72.2% of the variation in the vulnerability patterns. These findings are corroborated by a vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA), which shows that the community lacks strategies to cope with unsafe housing. It is suggested that linking community participation with modern techniques to analyse risk can empower communities and mobilise their capacities to address very specific vulnerabilities.  相似文献   

Fishing dynamics associated with periodically harvested marine closures     

Philippa J. Cohen  Joshua E. Cinner  Simon Foale 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1702-1713

Periodically-harvested fisheries closures are emerging as a socially acceptable and locally implementable way to balance concerns about conserving ecosystem function and sustaining livelihoods. Across the Indo-Pacific periodically-harvested closures are commonly employed, yet their contribution towards more sustainable fisheries remains largely untested in the social and ecological context of tropical small-scale fisheries. To address this, we use an interdisciplinary approach to examine harvesting dynamics that would affect sustainability, namely, fishing effort, yield, gear and method use, periodicity of harvesting, controls placed on harvesting and resource owners’ decisions to open and close four fishing grounds in Solomon Islands. We compare these fishing patterns with those on surrounding, continuously open fishing grounds. Our study shows that total effort and total catch from periodically-harvested reef closures are low to moderate compared to reefs open to continuous fishing. When periodically-harvested closures were opened, effort in the closures was relatively intense, however, in most cases yield did not exceed annual benchmarks of sustainability described by previous studies. In some cases, harvesting during openings was restricted to a single taxon and single fishing gear and method, while in others there was unrestricted multi-species and multi-method harvesting. The duration and frequency of openings were highly variable, with open periods ranging from a single night to one month in duration, and occurring between one and 15 times per year. Fishing during openings was permitted for entire fishing communities in some cases, and only for specific rights-holding families in others. Decisions to open periodically-harvested closures tended to be based on immediate social or economic needs, and the openings provided a small boost to fish catch landed in communities. While periodically-harvested closures may alleviate fishing pressure in a small area of fishing grounds by reducing the opportunity to fish, openings of long duration or high frequency, combined with heavy or destructive exploitation, may lead to unsustainable harvesting within the area.  相似文献   

Low velocity impacts into dust: results from the COLLIDE-2 microgravity experiment     

Joshua E. Colwell 《Icarus》2003,164(1):188-196

We present the results of the second flight of the Collisions Into Dust Experiment (COLLIDE-2), a space shuttle payload that performs six impact experiments into simulated planetary regolith at speeds between 1 and 100 cm/s. COLLIDE-2 flew on the STS-108 mission in December 2001 following an initial flight in April 1998. The experiment was modified since the first flight to provide higher quality data, and the impact parameters were varied. Spherical quartz projectiles of 1-cm radius were launched into quartz sand and JSC-1 lunar regolith simulant targets 2-cm deep. At impact speeds below ∼20 cm/s the projectile embedded itself in the target material and did not rebound. Some ejecta were produced at ∼10 cm/s. At speeds >25 cm/s the projectile rebounded and significant ejecta was produced. We present coefficients of restitution, ejecta velocities, and limits on ejecta masses. Ejecta velocities are typically less than 10% of the impact velocity, and the fraction of impact kinetic energy partitioned into ejecta kinetic energy is also less than 10%. Taken together with a proposed aerodynamic planetesimal growth mechanism, these results support planetesimal growth at impact speeds above the nominal observed threshold of about 20 cm/s.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the snow‐covered area data product from MODIS     

Edwin P. Maurer  Joshua D. Rhoads  Ralph O. Dubayah  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《水文研究》2003,17(1):59-71

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flown on board the Terra Earth Observing System (EOS) platform launched in December 1999, produces a snow‐covered area (SCA) product. This product is expected to be of better quality than SCA products based on operational satellites (notably GOES and AVHRR), due both to improved spectral resolution and higher spatial resolution of the MODIS instrument. The gridded MODIS SCA product was compared with the SCA product produced and distributed by the National Weather Service National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) for 46 selected days over the Columbia River basin and 32 days over the Missouri River basin during winter and spring of 2000–01. Snow presence or absence was inferred from ground observations of snow depth at 1330 stations in the Missouri River basin and 762 stations in the Columbia River basin, and was compared with the presence/absence classification for the corresponding pixels in the MODIS and NOHRSC SCA products. On average, the MODIS SCA images classified fewer pixels as cloud than NOHRSC, the effect of which was that 15% more of the Columbia basin area could be classified as to presence–absence of snow, while overall there was a statistically insignificant difference over the Missouri basin. Of the pixels classified as cloud free, MODIS misclassified 4% and 5% fewer overall (for the Columbia and Missouri basins respectively) than did the NOHRSC product. When segregated by vegetation cover, forested areas had the greatest differences in fraction of cloud cover reported by the two SCA products, with MODIS classifying 13% and 17% less of the images as cloud for the Missouri and Columbia basins respectively. These differences are particularly important in the Columbia River basin, 39% of which is forested. The ability of MODIS to classify significantly greater amounts of snow in the presence of cloud in more topographically complex, forested, and snow‐dominated areas of these two basins provides valuable information for hydrologic prediction. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Core Density Profile Survival in Dissipationless Mergers     

Eliza Fulton  Joshua E. Barnes 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2001,276(2-4):851-859

We use N-body experiments to study the survival of power-law density cusps in mergers of spherical galaxy models. Steep cusps (e.g. ρ∝r ^-2) are preserved during mergers of equal-mass models; this may be viewed as a general consequence of the incomplete violent relaxation observed in such mergers. Progenitor profile has a strong effect on remnant shape; steep cusps produce oblate remnants. If bright ellipticals form by hierarchical mergers of faint ones, the lack of steep cusps in these galaxies is somewhat surprising. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Improving Groundwater Model Calibration with Repeat Microgravity Measurements     

Jeffrey R. Kennedy  Libby Wildermuth  Jacob E. Knight  Joshua Larsen 《Ground water》2022,60(3):393-403

Groundwater-flow models depend on hydraulic head and flux observations for evaluation and calibration. A different type of observation—change in storage measured using repeat microgravity—can also be used for parameter estimation by simulating the expected change in gravity from a groundwater model and including the observation misfit in the objective function. The method is demonstrated using new software linked to MODFLOW input and output files and field data from the vicinity of the All American Canal in southeast California, USA. Over a 10-year period following lining of the previously highly permeable canal with concrete, gravity decreased by over 100 μGal (equivalent to about 2.5 m of free-standing water) at some locations as seepage decreased and the remnant groundwater mound dissipated into the aquifer or was removed by groundwater pumping. Simulated gravity from a MODFLOW model closely matched observations, and repeat microgravity data proved useful for constraining both hydraulic conductivity and specific yield estimates. Specific yield estimated using the infinite-horizontal slab approximation agreed well with model-derived values, and the departure from the linear, flat-water-table approximation was small, less than 2%, despite relatively large and dynamic water-table slope. First-order second-moment parameter uncertainty analysis shows reduction in uncertainty for all hydraulic conductivity and specific yield parameter estimates with the addition of repeat microgravity data, as compared to drawdown data alone.  相似文献   

Synchronous changes in chironomid assemblages in two Arctic delta lake ecosystems after a major saltwater intrusion event     

Joshua R. Thienpont  Courtney Steele  Jesse C. Vermaire  Michael F. J. Pisaric  Steven V. Kokelj  John P. Smol 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2015,53(2):177-189

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